PSG Vs Arsenal Preview: Can Arteta’s Arsenal Pull Off a Paris Miracle Against PSG?
Mikel Arteta is on a rescue mission as Arsenal aim to overturn a 0-1 first-leg loss in the semi-final of this season’s UEFA Champions League.
Ballon d’Or favourite Ousmane Dembele’s goal remains the difference between both sides as they head into the second leg this Wednesday in Paris.
With 8 Champions League goals this campaign, Dembele has been passed fit after a hamstring strain prevented him from completing the first leg at the Emirates. His presence will prove decisive as PSG aim to reach only their second European final since 2020, where they eventually lost to Bayern Munich.
Only Joao Neves started in PSG’s weekend loss to Strasbourg, as manager Luis Enrique rested 10 players ahead of the second leg. Neves was a constant thorn for the Arsenal defence in the first leg, applying high pressure and aggressive tackles. He has made 51 tackles in the Champions League this season and applied 756 high pressures, at least a hundred more than any other player.
Arsenal had far from ideal preparation for the PSG tie, suffering a 1-2 home defeat to Bournemouth. However, the return of Thomas Partey for the trip to Paris will add composure, steel, and leadership to the Arsenal midfield, giving Declan Rice more freedom to push into the final third.
Rice, man of the match against Real Madrid in both legs, was limited without Partey. This season, he has made the most line-breaking passes into the final third (6), and completed the joint-most passes of either team in the first leg (50).
The England midfielder also leads all Arsenal players in the 2024–25 competition for line-breaking passes leading to both shots (7) and goals (3).
PSG enter this tie with just one win in their last four games but will be buoyed by having knocked out two English sides—Aston Villa and Liverpool—earlier in the tournament. Historically, they have only been eliminated once after winning the first leg, against Marcus Rashford’s Manchester United.
Also Read: Champions League: What Arsenal Must Do Differently to Overcome PSG in the Second Leg
Arsenal have never progressed in a European tie after losing the first leg at home. However, Arteta’s side will take solace from having won their last four away ties in the Champions League, including a memorable 2-1 victory at the Bernabéu. They’ll be hoping to create history by making it five.
To qualify for their second UEFA Champions League final, Arsenal must win by two goals in 90 minutes—no easy task given their previous visits to Paris in 1994 and 2016, both of which ended in 1-1 draws.
Probable Lineup
Paris Saint-Germain’s possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia
Arsenal’s possible starting lineup:
Raya, Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Saka, Merino, Martinelli
PSG vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer favoured a home win as PSG triumphed in 90 minutes across 45.4% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
It’s hard to expect Luis Enrique to set up for a draw, though that result was rated at 24.6%, slightly behind Arsenal’s winning likelihood of 30.0%.
PSG’s first-leg victory saw them jump to favourites to go all the way in Opta’s tournament predictions, with their silverware chances valued at 41.6%. Arsenal’s hopes have dropped from 31.3% before kick-off last Tuesday to 11.2%.
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